Climate Security Hub

The Conflict Climate Change Nexus: Where is the Evidence?

Source (full references available in Scartozzi 2020)Period AnalyzedRegionIV Link DV*
(Adano et al. 2012)1950-2010Africa+PY+NSC/+IVac
(Almer, Laurent-Lucchetti, and Oechslin 2017)1990-2011Africa+DY+INTRA/+NSC
(Burke et al. 2009)1981-2002Africa+TY+INTRAabcd
(Detges 2016)1990-2010Africa+D/-PY+INTRAc
(Fjelde and von Uexkull 2012)1990-2008Africa-PY+NSCbcd
(Hendrix and Glaser 2007)1981-2002AfricaCVYINTRAabce
(Hendrix and Salehyan 2012)1990-2008Africa^PYINTRA/NSCabcd
(Maystadt and Ecker 2014)1997-2009AfricaDY+INTRA/+NSCbd
(Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti 2004)1979-1999Africa^PY+INTRAade
(Nordkvelle, Rustad, and Salmivalli 2017)1989-2013Africa+D/DISY+NSC
(O’Loughlin et al. 2012)1990-2009Africa+TY^INTRAbcd
(Papaioannou 2016)1912-1945Africa^PYINTRA/NSC/IVc
(Raleigh and Kniveton 2012)1997-2009Africa^PY+INTRA/NSCabc
(Raleigh, Choi, and Kniveton 2015)1997-2010Africa-P/DY+INTRA/NSCc
(Rowhani et al. 2011)2000-2006Africa+VY+INTRAa
(Theisen 2012)1989-2004Africa+PY+INTRA/NSCa
(Benjaminsen et al. 2012)1992-2009Africa-WN^Ca
(Buhaug 2010a)1981-2002Africa+T/^PN^INTRAabcd
(Buhaug and Theisen 2012)1960-2004Africa^P/+DN^INTRAa
(Couttenier and Soubeyran 2013)1957-2005Africa+DN+INTRAd
(Kevane and Gray 2008)1980-2000Africa-PN+INTRAb
(Meier, Bond, and Bond 2007)2004-2005AfricaPN+NSCbce
(Theisen, Holtermann, and Buhaug 2011)1960-2004AfricaDNINTRAbd
(von Uexkull et al. 2016)1989-2014Africa-AsiaDY^INTRA
(Bai and Kung 2011)220b.c.-1839Asia+D/-PY+Cad
(Bhavnani and Lacina 2015)1982-2000Asia^PY+NSC/+IVc
(Caruso, Petrarca, and Ricciuti 2016)1993-2003Asia+TY+INTRAc
(Sarsons 2015)1950-1995Asia+PY-NSCc
(Zhang et al. 2006)1000-1911Asia-TY+Cd
(Zhang et al. 2007)1000-1911Asia-TY+Cab
(Zhang et al. 2010)10-1990Asia-TY+Ca
(Bernauer and Siegfried 2012)1991-2045AsiaCCN+INTER
(Wischnath and Buhaug 2014)1950-2008AsiaCVNINTRAbc
(Buntgen et al. 2011)500b.c.-2011Europe^T/^P/CVY^Cb
(Lee et al. 2013)1400-1995EuropeNAOY+Cbd
(Zhang et al. 2011)1500-1800Europe-TY+Ca
(Tol and Wagner 2010)1000-2000Europe-T~+Cabcd
(Zhang et al. 2007b)1400-1900Europe-Asia-TY+Cbc
(Devlin and Hendrix 2014)1950-2002Global^PY^Cc
(Gartzke 2012)1816-200Global+TY-INTERab
(Ghimire and Ferreira 2016)1985-2009Global+DISYINTERc
(Gizelis and Wooden 2010)1981-2000Global^WYINTRAa
(Hsiang, Meng, and Cane 2011)1950-2004GlobalELYINTRAabcd
(Landis 2014)1948–2011Global+T/-PY+INTRA/+NSCc
(Nardulli, Peyton, and Bajjalieh 2015)1981-2004GlobalDISYCc
(Nel and Righarts 2008)1950-2002GlobalDISY+INTRAabc
(Salehyan and Hendrix 2014)1970-2006Global+PY+NSCcd
(Schleussner et al. 2016)1980-2010GlobalDISYINTRAc
(Slettebak 2012)1950-2008GlobalDIS/DY-INTRAabc
(Theisen 2008)1979-2001GlobalLYINTRAae
(Tir and Stinnett 2012)1950-2002Global-WYINTERc
(Bergholt and Lujala 2012)1980-2007Global+DISN+INTRAabc
(Böhmelt et al. 2014)1997-2009GlobalCVN^INTRA/^NSTc
(Dell, Jones, and Olken 2012)1950-2003Global^TN^Ccd
(Klomp and Bulte 2013)1960-2008Global^P/^TN+INTRAb
(Koubi et al. 2012)1980-2004Global^P/^TN+INTRAabc
(Raleigh and Urdal 2007)1990-2004Global^L/^W~+INTRA/NSCabce
(Urdal 2005)1950-2000GlobalL~INTERae

Legend:
Independent variable (IV): CC = climate change; CV = climate variability; P = precipitation; T = temperature; D = draught, DIS = climate-induced disasters; V = vegetation, L = land, W = freshwater; SLR = sea-level rise; EL = ENSO; NAO = North Atlantic Oscillation
Link: Y = leads to; N = does not lead to; ~ = is not clear if it leads to.
Dependent variable (DV): C = conflict; INTER = inter-state conflict; INTRA = intra-state conflict; NSC = non-state conflict; IV = interpersonal violence.
Symbols: + = increase; = decrease; ^ = variation (increase or decrease)
* Additional sources: a = (Scheffran et al. 2012); b = (Selby 2014); c = (Sakaguchi, Varughese, and Auld 2017); d = (Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel 2015); e = (Buhaug, Gleditsch, and Theisen 2008).
This table was retrieved from Scartozzi (2020). Read the original paper for more information.
Cite as: Scartozzi, Cesare M. “Reframing Climate-Induced Socio-Environmental Conflicts: A Systematic Review.” International Studies Review (2020). https://doi.org/10.1093/isr/viaa064.


Resources and Useful Links


Essential Readings on Climate Security

Last updated: Aug. 30, 2020

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