Anthropogenic emissions are irreversibly changing the earth's climate system. This rapid release of organic carbon into the atmosphere constitutes, as noted by Revelle and Suess in 1957, the largest geophysical experiment ever attempted. The scale and pace of contemporary climate change are simply unprecedented, and questions have begun to arise on how a warmer, more unpredictable earth will affect international peace and security.
The past twenty years have seen increasingly rapid advances in the field of climate security, where two schools of thought have emerged. The first is the environmental security school, focusing on how geophysical impacts of climate change — mediated by social variables — lead to conflict via opportunity-cost or grievance mechanisms. The second is the political ecology school, which focuses on how climate signals are translated into knowledge and practices that navigate ecological transformations, benefitting some and disempowering others. Together, these perspectives have shown that the link between climate change and international security is multi-causal and largely context-specific.
My research looks at this intersection from three angles: the state of the scientific evidence, the evolution of policy debates, and how climate security is being operationalized in practice.
My contribution to the scientific evidence base focuses on the systematic assessment of existing research and on building quantitative tools to map what we know and do not know about climate-security dynamics.
- Reframing Climate-Induced Socio-Environmental Conflicts: A Systematic Review
International Studies Review 23(3): 696–725 (2021). - Measuring the Climate Security Nexus: The Integrated Climate Security Framework
PLOS Climate 3(10): e0000280 (2024). With G. Pacillo, L. Medina et al. - Intersections of Religion and Climate-Related Security Risks: Insights from a Systematic Review
Worldviews 29(1): 71–98 (2024). With J. Tarusarira, R. I. Elnur. - How Robust Is the Evidence on Climate Security? An Assessment of Confidence Levels in IPCC Reports via the SCIPCC Dashboard
Toda Peace Institute Policy Brief 129 (2022). - SCIPCC Dashboard: Visualizing Climate Security Evidence from the IPCC WGII AR6 Report (interactive tool).
An evolving discussion on climate security has taken place within international organizations over the past decade. This discussion has been driven by public demand for climate action, growing awareness of security implications, and the need to adapt security operations to a changing environment. My research maps how these debates have unfolded and what they tell us about the institutionalization of climate security as a policy field.
- Climate Change in the UN Security Council: An Analysis of Discourses and Organizational Trends
International Studies Perspectives 23(3): 290–312 (2022). - The UN Security Council at a Turning Point: Securitisation or Climatisation?
Global Outlook, Toda Peace Institute (2021). - North Korean Climate Diplomacy: Engagement, Priorities, and Opportunities for Collaboration
The Pacific Review 37(4): 825–852 (2024). With G. Kang.
The operationalization of climate security in practice is the part of the field where the gap between evidence, debates, and action is most apparent. My work in this area examines how international organizations, climate funds, and bilateral actors have translated climate security commitments into concrete programmes and projects — and what barriers remain.
- Climate-Sensitive Programming in International Security: An Analysis of UN Peacekeeping Operations and Special Political Missions
International Peacekeeping 29(3): 488–521 (2022). - Conflict Sensitive Climate Finance: Lessons from the Green Climate Fund
Climate Policy 24(3): 297–313 (2024). - Climate Security Programming Dashboard for Climate Finance (CSPDxCF) — interactive tool for climate fund practitioners.
- CSPDxCF: Guidebook and Methodology
CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security, 2023. - Climate Security Policy Coherence and Awareness Analysis: Guatemala and Central America
CGIAR, 2023. - Climate Security Policy Coherence and Awareness Analysis: East Africa and Kenya
CGIAR, 2022. - Climate Security Policy Coherence and Awareness Analysis: West Africa and Senegal
CGIAR, 2022. - Climate Security Policy Coherence and Awareness Analysis: Philippines
CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security, 2024. With F. Schapendonk et al. - Policy Discourses on Climate Change, Peace, and Security in Somalia
CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security, 2024. With F. Schapendonk. - Long Term Climate Resilience: A Pathway to Stabilize Somalia
New Security Beat, September 2024. With A. Balakrishnan. - Livestock, Climate, and Security: A Policy Coherence and Awareness Analysis
CGIAR, 2022.